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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.

Debates cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."